Index: Concept Notes - Life Tables and Replication Forecasting

Concept Notes - Life Tables and Replication Forecasting

Routing Summary

Two concept notes (no raw source) covering topics from the PyMC examples that have no single open primary source in this run.

• Need life tables, years of life lost, or the counterfactual mortality path (E111)? → Concept Note - Abridged Life Tables Years of Life Lost and the Counterfactual Path
• Need forecasting replication from published effects (E117)? → Concept Note - Forecasting Replication from Published Effects

Concept Map

Concept	Note	Type	Depends On	Key Result
Abridged life table	Concept Note - Abridged Life Tables Years of Life Lost and the Counterfactual Path	definition	-	$e_x=T_x/l_x$
Years of life lost	Concept Note - Abridged Life Tables Years of Life Lost and the Counterfactual Path	definition	life table	excess deaths x remaining expectancy
Publication filter	Concept Note - Forecasting Replication from Published Effects	definition	-	$f_{pub}=wm/Z$
Replication forecast	Concept Note - Forecasting Replication from Published Effects	theorem	filter, mixture	toy $P(\text{replicate})=0.23$

Notes

• Concept Note - Abridged Life Tables Years of Life Lost and the Counterfactual Path — CONTAINS: life-table functions, YLL, counterfactual path, toy numbers, PyMC sketch.
• Concept Note - Forecasting Replication from Published Effects — CONTAINS: step-selection filter, null/real mixture, replication forecast, toy numbers, code.

Sources

• No raw source. Literature cited in the notes: Chiang (1984), Preston, Heuveline and Guillot (2001), Arriaga (1984); Hedges (1992), Andrews and Kasy (2019), Open Science Collaboration (2015).

See Also

• Girosi King 2007 - Understanding the Lee-Carter Method - Overview
• Andrews Kasy 2019 - Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias - Overview