Index: Silverman 2020 - Multiple Systems Analysis for Modern Slavery

Silverman 2020 - Multiple Systems Analysis for Modern Slavery

Routing Summary

Full capture of Silverman (arXiv:1902.06078v3; JRSS-A 183(3): 691-736): Poisson log-linear MSE, frequentist and Bayesian model-selection instabilities on UK, Netherlands, New Orleans and Kosovo data, and the Bayesian/threshold method. 8 notes, Tables 1-15 captured (UK Table 1 cell patterns summarised, others reproduced).

• Need the paper in one page? → Silverman 2020 - Multiple Systems Analysis for Modern Slavery - Overview
• Need the data sets (Tables 1-4)? → Silverman 2020 - Data Sets for Multiple Systems Estimation
• Need the log-linear model and dark-figure formula? → Silverman 2020 - Poisson Log-Linear Model for Multiple Lists
• Need stepwise AIC/BIC results (Tables 5-6)? → Silverman 2020 - Frequentist Model Selection Results
• Need extended MLE, empty overlaps, posterior at minus infinity? → Silverman 2020 - Existence, Identifiability and Empty Overlaps
• Need Madigan-York and LCMCR benchmarks (Tables 7-8)? → Silverman 2020 - Madigan-York and Dirichlet Process Benchmarks
• Need the Bayesian/threshold algorithm and PyMC sketch? → Silverman 2020 - Bayesian-Threshold Method
• Need posterior tables 9-14, Table 15, conclusions? → Silverman 2020 - Bayesian-Threshold Results and Conclusions

Concept Map

Concept	Note	Type	Depends On	Key Result
UK/NL/NOLA/Kosovo data	Silverman 2020 - Data Sets for Multiple Systems Estimation	example	-	2744 / 8234 / 185 / 4400 cases
Poisson log-linear MSE	Silverman 2020 - Poisson Log-Linear Model for Multiple Lists	definition	data	$\hat{N}=n+e^{\hat{\mu }}$
Stepwise AIC instability	Silverman 2020 - Frequentist Model Selection Results	example	log-linear	NL 60.3k → 146.0k on merging
Empty-overlap posterior	Silverman 2020 - Existence, Identifiability and Empty Overlaps	theorem	log-linear	${\beta }_{12}=-\infty$ atom
Madigan-York / LCMCR	Silverman 2020 - Madigan-York and Dirichlet Process Benchmarks	example	log-linear	bimodal / flip between modes
Bayesian/threshold	Silverman 2020 - Bayesian-Threshold Method	definition	empty overlaps	variance 1, $\tau =2$ default
Results and conclusions	Silverman 2020 - Bayesian-Threshold Results and Conclusions	example	method	UK ~12.3k (11-14k)

Notes

• Silverman 2020 - Multiple Systems Analysis for Modern Slavery - Overview — CONTAINS: question, findings, E109 link, Source Map.
• Silverman 2020 - Data Sets for Multiple Systems Estimation — CONTAINS: list definitions, totals, variants, Kosovo Table 4 decoded.
• Silverman 2020 - Poisson Log-Linear Model for Multiple Lists — CONTAINS: Eq. 1, dark figure, multinomial link, Lincoln-Petersen special case, Python.
• Silverman 2020 - Frequentist Model Selection Results — CONTAINS: stepwise AIC, all-subsets BIC, Tables 5-6.
• Silverman 2020 - Existence, Identifiability and Empty Overlaps — CONTAINS: three estimability problems, empty-overlap theorem, UK cell counts.
• Silverman 2020 - Madigan-York and Dirichlet Process Benchmarks — CONTAINS: Tables 7-8, Figs. 5-6 discussion.
• Silverman 2020 - Bayesian-Threshold Method — CONTAINS: algorithm, implementation, PyMC sketch.
• Silverman 2020 - Bayesian-Threshold Results and Conclusions — CONTAINS: Tables 9-15, conclusions.

Sources

• Silverman 2020 - Multiple Systems Analysis for the Quantification of Modern Slavery — arXiv:1902.06078v3, 31 pp.

See Also

• Aleshin-Guendel 2020 - Identifiability of Latent Class MSE Models - Overview, Concept - Latent Class and Dirichlet Process Models for Multiple Systems Estimation, Horseshoe and Regularized Horseshoe Priors.