Vickers 2019 - Step-by-Step Guide to Decision Curve Analysis
Routing Summary
Fully captures Vickers, Van Calster and Steyerberg (2019), A simple, step-by-step guide to interpreting decision curve analysis (Diagn Progn Res 3:18, CC BY 4.0). 4 notes covering the net benefit formula, the five interpretive steps with a verified prostate example, and the ten FAQs.
- Need the paper on one page or the section-to-note map? → Vickers 2019 - Step-by-Step Guide to Decision Curve Analysis - Overview
- Need the net benefit formula, threshold odds, or the utility derivation? → Vickers 2019 - Net Benefit and Threshold Probability
- Need the five steps, the prostate biopsy numbers, or runnable code? → Vickers 2019 - Five-Step Interpretation and Prostate Biopsy Example
- Need test harm, why AUC and net benefit differ, or how not to choose a threshold? → Vickers 2019 - Ten Questions and Limits of Decision Curves
Concept Map
| Concept | Note | Type | Depends On | Key Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net benefit | Vickers 2019 - Net Benefit and Threshold Probability | definition | sensitivity, specificity, prevalence | |
| Threshold probability | Vickers 2019 - Net Benefit and Threshold Probability | definition | utilities | |
| Utility justification | Vickers 2019 - Net Benefit and Threshold Probability | theorem | expected utility | = rescaled expected utility |
| Treat-all, treat-none | Vickers 2019 - Net Benefit and Threshold Probability | definition | prevalence | treat-all crosses 0 at |
| Prostate biopsy curve | Vickers 2019 - Five-Step Interpretation and Prostate Biopsy Example | example | all of the above | model wins except thresholds below about 2-3% |
| Interventions avoided | Vickers 2019 - Five-Step Interpretation and Prostate Biopsy Example | example | net benefit | about 40 biopsies avoided per 100 at 10% |
| Test harm / trade-off | Vickers 2019 - Ten Questions and Limits of Decision Curves | definition | net benefit | subtract |
| FAQ 1-10 | Vickers 2019 - Ten Questions and Limits of Decision Curves | concept | all | threshold range first; calibration matters |
Notes
- Vickers 2019 - Step-by-Step Guide to Decision Curve Analysis - Overview — CONTAINS: aim, contributions, motivating PyMC example E90, Source Map.
- Vickers 2019 - Net Benefit and Threshold Probability — CONTAINS: Def. net benefit, threshold, treat-all/none; utility derivation; net-profit analogy; treatment-effect-in-threshold example.
- Vickers 2019 - Five-Step Interpretation and Prostate Biopsy Example — CONTAINS: Steps 1-5, Figs 1-3 described, verified NB table, simulated model, Python.
- Vickers 2019 - Ten Questions and Limits of Decision Curves — CONTAINS: FAQ table, test harm, conclusion, limits.
Sources
- Vickers Van Calster Steyerberg 2019 - A Simple Step-by-Step Guide to Interpreting Decision Curve Analysis — 8 pages. The original Vickers and Elkin (2006), Med Decis Making 26:565-574, is cited but not ingested (no legal open copy retrieved).