Index: Philip 2020 - Protocol for Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution

Philip 2020 - Protocol for Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution

Routing Summary

Captures Philip et al. (2020), A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses (ASCMO 6:177-203, CC BY 4.0): the eight-step World Weather Attribution protocol, with extreme-value statistics (GEV, GPD, Gumbel, Gaussian, gamma), shift and scale trend models on smoothed GMST, probability ratio and return periods, model evaluation, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and communication. 6 notes plus overview. Motivating PyMC example: E37 (heatwave attribution); E113 flood-frequency concept note is in the sibling concept folder.

• Need the one-page summary and source map? → Philip 2020 - Extreme Event Attribution Protocol - Overview
• Need PR, FAR, return period, event definition, analysis trigger? → Philip 2020 - Probability Framing, Event Definition and Return Periods
• Need GEV / GPD / Gumbel / gamma formulas, return levels, bootstrap CIs? → Philip 2020 - Extreme Value Distributions for Attribution
• Need shift vs scale fit on GMST, worked examples (Peru, De Bilt, Louisiana), ENSO adjustment? → Philip 2020 - Trend Models and Natural Variability
• Need model evaluation, fixed/transient forcing, weighted-average synthesis with chi-square inflation? → Philip 2020 - Model Evaluation, Multi-Model Attribution and Hazard Synthesis
• Need vulnerability/exposure and communication steps? → Philip 2020 - Vulnerability, Exposure and Communication
• Need a Bayesian non-stationary GEV in PyMC? → Philip 2020 - Bayesian GEV Attribution in PyMC

Concept Map

Concept	Note	Type	Depends On	Key Result
Probability ratio, FAR	Philip 2020 - Probability Framing, Event Definition and Return Periods	definition	event class	$PR=p_1/p_0$; FAR $=1-1/PR$
Event class and trigger	Philip 2020 - Probability Framing, Event Definition and Return Periods	definition	-	threshold fixed by the event
GEV	Philip 2020 - Extreme Value Distributions for Attribution	definition	block maxima	$\exp [-(1+\xi (x-\mu )/\sigma {)}^{-1/\xi }]$
GPD / POT	Philip 2020 - Extreme Value Distributions for Attribution	definition	threshold	declustering difficulty
Shift fit	Philip 2020 - Trend Models and Natural Variability	definition	GEV/Normal	$\mu ={\mu }_0+\alpha T^{\prime }$
Scale fit	Philip 2020 - Trend Models and Natural Variability	definition	GEV/GPD	constant $\sigma /\mu$
Model validation	Philip 2020 - Model Evaluation, Multi-Model Attribution and Hazard Synthesis	concept	fits	CI overlap on $\sigma$, $\xi$
Hazard synthesis	Philip 2020 - Model Evaluation, Multi-Model Attribution and Hazard Synthesis	theorem	$PR$ estimates	weighted $\log PR$, $\sqrt{{\chi }^2/dof}$ inflation
Hazard/exposure/vulnerability	Philip 2020 - Vulnerability, Exposure and Communication	definition	-	separate qualitative review
Bayesian GEV	Philip 2020 - Bayesian GEV Attribution in PyMC	concept	GEV, shift fit	endpoint reparameterisation

Notes

• Philip 2020 - Extreme Event Attribution Protocol - Overview — CONTAINS: question, contribution, key numbers, E37 link, full source map.
• Philip 2020 - Probability Framing, Event Definition and Return Periods — CONTAINS: framings, Defs. PR, FAR, return period, event class; Steps 1-2; Python.
• Philip 2020 - Extreme Value Distributions for Attribution — CONTAINS: Defs. GEV, GPD, Gumbel, Gaussian, gamma; data; CIs; trigger-event handling; Python.
• Philip 2020 - Trend Models and Natural Variability — CONTAINS: shift and scale fits; examples table; ENSO/AMO; Python.
• Philip 2020 - Model Evaluation, Multi-Model Attribution and Hazard Synthesis — CONTAINS: Steps 4-6, bias correction, fixed/transient forcing, synthesis rules, Python.
• Philip 2020 - Vulnerability, Exposure and Communication — CONTAINS: Steps 7-8, risk components, conclusions.
• Philip 2020 - Bayesian GEV Attribution in PyMC — CONTAINS: Bayesian non-stationary GEV, priors, sketch, support wall.

Sources

• Philip 2020 - Protocol for Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution — Philip S, Kew S, van Oldenborgh GJ, Otto F, Vautard R et al. (2020), Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 6:177-203.

See Also

• Concept Notes - Log-Pearson III Flood Frequency and Historic Floods, Hierarchical Models, Decision Analysis