Meager 2019 - Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Microcredit
Routing Summary
This folder fully captures Meager (2019): Bayesian hierarchical aggregation of seven microcredit RCTs - models, priors, pooling metrics, average effects, heterogeneity, and covariate analyses. It contains 9 notes covering Sections I-VI, Appendix A, Tables 1-5 and Figures 1-10.
- Need the paper on one page, headline results, or the section-to-note map? → Meager 2019 - Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Microcredit - Overview
- Need the seven studies, Table 1, outcome construction, or why ITT? → Meager 2019 - Studies, Data and Outcomes
- Need eq. 1-4 (Rubin model, full-data model, interactions, site covariates) or exchangeability? → Meager 2019 - Hierarchical Model Specifications
- Need priors (eq. 5), LKJ, HMC/Stan, or why Bayesian? → Meager 2019 - Bayesian Estimation, Priors and Computation
- Need pooling factors omega, omega-breve, lambda (eq. 6-8) or a runnable Rubin example? → Meager 2019 - Pooling Factors and Measuring External Validity
- Need Table 2 (average effects) or the OLS-vs-BHM comparison? → Meager 2019 - Average Treatment Effects - Results
- Need Tables 3-4, the 60 percent result, or predictive distributions of the next site? → Meager 2019 - Heterogeneity, Pooling Results and Predictive Distributions
- Need prior-business subgroups, Table 5 or the ridge regression? → Meager 2019 - Covariates - Prior Business Experience and Site-Level Ridge
- Need the conclusion, limitations or the marketing mapping? → Meager 2019 - Conclusion, Limitations and Marketing Analogues
Concept Map
| Concept | Note | Type | Depends On | Key Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studies and outcomes | Meager 2019 - Studies, Data and Outcomes | concept | - | 7 RCTs; USD PPP per fortnight; ITT of access |
| Rubin model (eq. 1) | Meager 2019 - Hierarchical Model Specifications | definition | - | , |
| Full-data and covariate models (eq. 2-4) | Meager 2019 - Hierarchical Model Specifications | definition | eq. 1 | control means, subgroup and site covariates |
| Exchangeability | Meager 2019 - Hierarchical Model Specifications | definition | eq. 1 | applies only to exchangeable sites |
| Priors (eq. 5), HMC | Meager 2019 - Bayesian Estimation, Priors and Computation | concept | eq. 2 | LKJ(3) correlation, half-Cauchy(0,10) scale; |
| Pooling factors (eq. 6-8) | Meager 2019 - Pooling Factors and Measuring External Validity | definition | eq. 1 | omega, omega-breve, lambda in [0,1] |
| Table 2 average effects | Meager 2019 - Average Treatment Effects - Results | example | eq. 2 | profit 6.8, revenues 14.5; all 95% intervals include 0 |
| Tables 3-4; predictive | Meager 2019 - Heterogeneity, Pooling Results and Predictive Distributions | example | eq. 6-8 | about 60% sampling variation; 25% adverse sign |
| Covariates and ridge | Meager 2019 - Covariates - Prior Business Experience and Site-Level Ridge | example | eq. 3-4 | prior business: larger, more heterogeneous; APR, loan size, women |
| Conclusion and marketing mapping | Meager 2019 - Conclusion, Limitations and Marketing Analogues | concept | all | moderate external validity |
Notes
- Meager 2019 - Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Microcredit - Overview - CONTAINS: question, key results, Source Map, notation.
- Meager 2019 - Studies, Data and Outcomes - CONTAINS: inclusion criteria, Table 1, outcome construction, ITT rationale, vote-counting critique.
- Meager 2019 - Hierarchical Model Specifications - CONTAINS: eq. 1-4 with all symbols, nesting theorem, partial pooling, exchangeability, example.
- Meager 2019 - Bayesian Estimation, Priors and Computation - CONTAINS: arguments for Bayes, eq. 5 priors, Appendix A posterior (A1), HMC/NUTS, diagnostics.
- Meager 2019 - Pooling Factors and Measuring External Validity - CONTAINS: external validity, eq. 6-8, conjugate shrinkage identity, hypothetical Rubin example and Python.
- Meager 2019 - Average Treatment Effects - Results - CONTAINS: Table 2 in full, p-values, Fig 1-4 summary, magnitude interpretation, why more mass near zero.
- Meager 2019 - Heterogeneity, Pooling Results and Predictive Distributions - CONTAINS: Tables 3-4, 60 percent arithmetic, predictive distributions (Figs 5-6), profit example.
- Meager 2019 - Covariates - Prior Business Experience and Site-Level Ridge - CONTAINS: prior-business model and findings (Figs 7-9), Table 5, ridge findings (Fig 10), hypothetical ridge Python.
- Meager 2019 - Conclusion, Limitations and Marketing Analogues - CONTAINS: conclusion, limitations, marketing mapping table and geo-combination example.
Sources
- Meager (2019), AEJ: Applied Economics 11(1):57-91, doi:10.1257/app.20170299 - Meager 2019 - Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit Expansions (LSE Research Online published version).