Posts
All the articles I've posted.
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Brand Equity Lives in the Baseline: Why Weekly MMMs Under-Credit Brand Building
A weekly MMM captures activation and short-term carryover well, but long-term brand equity gets absorbed into the baseline — credited to "base demand," not to the channels that built it. Here's the math of the gap and three honest paths forward.
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The Gap-by-Gap Update: How Augur's Continuous-Learning Loop Stays Current
When an MMM runs in production, new data arrives every week. The math of incorporating each new "gap" of data — without overfitting to it, without forgetting what came before, and without a full refit — is the core of Augur's continuous-learning design.
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The Sequential-Stopping Worry Is a Frequentist Problem (With a Bayesian Catch)
The Augur continuous-learning loop peeks at results every wave and stops the moment further testing isn't worth it. That sounds like optional stopping — but under the likelihood principle, Bayesian decision-theoretic stopping rules are immune. The catch is model misspecification, not peeking.
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Adstock and Saturation Are Not Separately Identified
Adstock and saturation are the two transforms at the heart of every MMM response curve — and the data almost never identifies them separately. Here's the ridge in the posterior and what it means for your media strategy.