Posts
All the articles I've posted.
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Wiring Your MMM to Your Experiments
Most teams run MMMs and geo-lift experiments as separate silos, then argue about which to trust. The better move is to wire them into a loop — the model picks the experiments, the experiments calibrate the model — and watch the uncertainty contract.
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All Models Are Wrong, So Make Yours Generative
If you can't run your model forward to simulate data, you don't understand it. Generative modeling turns that test into a workflow — and exposes the gap between a model that fits and a model that's right.
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Coincidence Is Not Contribution
A marketing-mix model answers a causal question — what would sales have been without this media — not "what moved together." Most MMMs quietly answer the easier question and dress it up as the hard one.
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Your MMM's Control Coefficients Are Not Findings
In a marketing-mix model you add seasonality, price, and competitor spend so your media coefficients come out clean. Then someone reads those control coefficients as insights. That's the Table 2 fallacy, and in an MMM it comes with two extra ways to get burned.