Tag: causal-inference
All the articles with the tag "causal-inference".
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More Data, More Confident, Still Wrong: The Table 2 Problem at Scale
A simulation study showing that as sample size grows, coverage rates for confounded control-variable coefficients collapse toward zero — the Table 2 fallacy gets worse with more data, not better.
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The Assumptions Are the Model
A model is a dumb number-crunching machine. Put data in, get numbers out — and unless something breaks loudly, those numbers look exactly as confident when your assumptions hold as when you've shredded them. The meaning was never in the arithmetic. It was in the assumptions.
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All Models Are Wrong, So Make Yours Generative
If you can't run your model forward to simulate data, you don't understand it. Generative modeling turns that test into a workflow — and exposes the gap between a model that fits and a model that's right.
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Coincidence Is Not Contribution
A marketing-mix model answers a causal question — what would sales have been without this media — not "what moved together." Most MMMs quietly answer the easier question and dress it up as the hard one.