Tag: experimental-design

All the articles with the tag "experimental-design".

• The Sequential-Stopping Worry Is a Frequentist Problem (With a Bayesian Catch)

  7 Jul, 2026

  The Augur continuous-learning loop peeks at results every wave and stops the moment further testing isn't worth it. That sounds like optional stopping — but under the likelihood principle, Bayesian decision-theoretic stopping rules are immune. The catch is model misspecification, not peeking.

• Wiring Your MMM to Your Experiments

  28 Jun, 2026

  Most teams run MMMs and geo-lift experiments as separate silos, then argue about which to trust. The better move is to wire them into a loop — the model picks the experiments, the experiments calibrate the model — and watch the uncertainty contract.

• Designing Experiments to Maximize Information

  27 Jun, 2026

  There's a single objective that says what makes one experiment better than another — expected information gain. It's beautiful, it's principled, and it's a nightmare to compute. Here's the arc from Lindley in 1956 to policies that design experiments in real time.