Tag: regression
All the articles with the tag "regression".
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Adstock and Saturation Are Not Separately Identified
Adstock and saturation are the two transforms at the heart of every MMM response curve — and the data almost never identifies them separately. Here's the ridge in the posterior and what it means for your media strategy.
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Collinearity Doesn't Break Your Model — It Tells You What Your Data Can't Separate
A high VIF isn't a technical failure to fix — it's a signal that your data can't distinguish two effects. The right response is better data or informative priors, not variable deletion.
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The Assumptions Are the Model
A model is a dumb number-crunching machine. Put data in, get numbers out — and unless something breaks loudly, those numbers look exactly as confident when your assumptions hold as when you've shredded them. The meaning was never in the arithmetic. It was in the assumptions.
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Your MMM's Control Coefficients Are Not Findings
In a marketing-mix model you add seasonality, price, and competitor spend so your media coefficients come out clean. Then someone reads those control coefficients as insights. That's the Table 2 fallacy, and in an MMM it comes with two extra ways to get burned.