Tag: statistics
All the articles with the tag "statistics".
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Stop Reporting ROI to Four Significant Figures
A point estimate written as 2.347 looks like you know the answer to a tenth of a percent. If your interval is ±10%, you don't — you know the first digit and you're guessing at the second. The decimal places are a confidence claim the model never made.
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The Assumptions Are the Model
A model is a dumb number-crunching machine. Put data in, get numbers out — and unless something breaks loudly, those numbers look exactly as confident when your assumptions hold as when you've shredded them. The meaning was never in the arithmetic. It was in the assumptions.
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The Effect You're Looking For Isn't in Your Panel Data
A between-person association and a within-person effect can differ in size or even flip sign. Most longitudinal models silently estimate a blend of the two, and the model you reach for decides which question you're actually answering.
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The Illusion of Significance: Why p-value Variable Selection Breaks Marketing Mix Models
Stepwise regression produces overconfident models with biased estimates — here's why that matters for MMM, and how Bayesian shrinkage priors fix the problem without breaking your causal identification.